CS:GO Weapon Case The Arms Deal Collection
- Skins
- 9
- Covert
- 1
- Rare Special Item
- Rare Special Item
- Methodology
- Data Methodology
- Author
- Dakota Chinnick
The CS:GO Weapon Case holds 9 skins plus a rare special item (Rare Special Item). Its Covert skin is AWP | Lightning Strike. Below you'll find every item with its exact drop chance from Valve's published odds and a simulator to open it for free.
CS:GO Weapon Case contents
All 9 skins, highest rarity first. Each item's chance is its rarity's published odds split evenly across the items in that rarity.
★ Rare Special Item
0.26%
★ Rare Special Item
1 in about 385 opens (0.26%) gives a rare special item. In this case that's one of these knives, in any of its finishes:
- ★ Bayonet
- ★ Flip Knife
- ★ Gut Knife
- ★ Karambit
- ★ M9 Bayonet
Covert
1 item · 0.64% total
Classified
2 items · 3.2% total
Restricted
3 items · 15.98% total
Case opening simulator
Open the CS:GO Weapon Case as often as you like and compare your results with Valve's odds. Single opens play the reel; ×10 rolls ten at once.
Simulation only. Nothing here is real: no keys, no items, no money. Every roll uses Valve's published odds and an even split within each rarity.
Your results vs expected
| Rarity | You got | Expected |
|---|---|---|
| Rare Special Item | 0 | 0 |
| Covert | 0 | 0 |
| Classified | 0 | 0 |
| Restricted | 0 | 0 |
| Mil-Spec Grade | 0 | 0 |
Session history
Open a case to start your session.
CS:GO Weapon Case drop odds
Valve's published odds by rarity, with the number of CS:GO Weapon Case items in each rarity and the resulting chance per item. A specific Covert skin is 0.64% per open, and any single Mil-Spec skin is 26.64%.
| Rarity | Chance | About 1 in | Items | Per item |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rare Special Item | 0.26% | 385 | 5 | 0.052% |
| Covert | 0.64% | 156 | 1 | 0.64% |
| Classified | 3.2% | 31 | 2 | 1.6% |
| Restricted | 15.98% | 6 | 3 | 5.33% |
| Mil-Spec Grade | 79.92% | 1 | 3 | 26.64% |
Source: the odds Valve publishes for CS2 weapon cases. Inside a rarity, every item is equally likely. Any weapon (and any knife) also has a 10% chance to be StatTrak™. Gloves are never StatTrak™.
The CS:GO Weapon Case (The Arms Deal Collection) contains 9 skins: 1 Covert, 2 Classified, 3 Restricted and 3 Mil-Spec. With Valve's published odds, each Covert skin (AWP | Lightning Strike) drops 0.64% of the time, and a StatTrak™ Covert is about 0.064% per open. Its rare special item is the Rare Special Item pool (Bayonet, Flip Knife, Gut Knife, Karambit, M9 Bayonet) at 0.26% per open, roughly 1 in 385.
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CS:GO Weapon Case FAQ
What's in the CS:GO Weapon Case?
The CS:GO Weapon Case contains 9 skins: 1 Covert (AWP | Lightning Strike), 2 Classified, 3 Restricted and 3 Mil-Spec, plus a rare special item (Rare Special Item).
What are the CS:GO Weapon Case odds?
Valve's published odds apply: Mil-Spec 79.92%, Restricted 15.98%, Classified 3.20%, Covert 0.64% and rare special 0.26%. Split across this case's items, each Covert skin is 0.64% per open and each Mil-Spec skin is 26.64%.
What knife or gloves can drop from the CS:GO Weapon Case?
The CS:GO Weapon Case's rare special item is a knife: Bayonet, Flip Knife, Gut Knife, Karambit, M9 Bayonet. It drops 0.26% of the time, about once every 385 opens, and can be StatTrak™.
Can the CS:GO Weapon Case drop StatTrak™ items?
Yes. Every weapon and knife from the CS:GO Weapon Case has a 10% chance to be StatTrak™, so a StatTrak™ Covert is about 0.064% per open.
Can I open the CS:GO Weapon Case for free?
You can simulate it for free on this page. The simulator uses Valve's published odds and opens nothing real: no keys, no items, no money. In-game, opening a case needs its matching key.