Operation Vanguard Weapon Case The Vanguard Collection
- Skins
- 14
- Covert
- 2
- Rare Special Item
- Rare Special Item
- Methodology
- Data Methodology
- Author
- Dakota Chinnick
The Operation Vanguard Weapon Case holds 14 skins plus a rare special item (Rare Special Item). Its Covert skins are AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel, P2000 | Fire Elemental. Below you'll find every item with its exact drop chance from Valve's published odds and a simulator to open it for free.
Operation Vanguard Weapon Case contents
All 14 skins, highest rarity first. Each item's chance is its rarity's published odds split evenly across the items in that rarity.
★ Rare Special Item
0.26%
★ Rare Special Item
1 in about 385 opens (0.26%) gives a rare special item. In this case that's one of these knives, in any of its finishes:
- ★ Bayonet
- ★ Flip Knife
- ★ Gut Knife
- ★ Karambit
- ★ M9 Bayonet
Classified
3 items · 3.2% total
Restricted
4 items · 15.98% total
Mil-Spec Grade
5 items · 79.92% total
Case opening simulator
Open the Operation Vanguard Weapon Case as often as you like and compare your results with Valve's odds. Single opens play the reel; ×10 rolls ten at once.
Simulation only. Nothing here is real: no keys, no items, no money. Every roll uses Valve's published odds and an even split within each rarity.
Your results vs expected
| Rarity | You got | Expected |
|---|---|---|
| Rare Special Item | 0 | 0 |
| Covert | 0 | 0 |
| Classified | 0 | 0 |
| Restricted | 0 | 0 |
| Mil-Spec Grade | 0 | 0 |
Session history
Open a case to start your session.
Operation Vanguard Weapon Case drop odds
Valve's published odds by rarity, with the number of Operation Vanguard Weapon Case items in each rarity and the resulting chance per item. A specific Covert skin is 0.32% per open, and any single Mil-Spec skin is 15.98%.
| Rarity | Chance | About 1 in | Items | Per item |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rare Special Item | 0.26% | 385 | 5 | 0.052% |
| Covert | 0.64% | 156 | 2 | 0.32% |
| Classified | 3.2% | 31 | 3 | 1.07% |
| Restricted | 15.98% | 6 | 4 | 4% |
| Mil-Spec Grade | 79.92% | 1 | 5 | 15.98% |
Source: the odds Valve publishes for CS2 weapon cases. Inside a rarity, every item is equally likely. Any weapon (and any knife) also has a 10% chance to be StatTrak™. Gloves are never StatTrak™.
The Operation Vanguard Weapon Case (The Vanguard Collection) contains 14 skins: 2 Covert, 3 Classified, 4 Restricted and 5 Mil-Spec. With Valve's published odds, each Covert skin (AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel, P2000 | Fire Elemental) drops 0.32% of the time, and a StatTrak™ Covert is about 0.064% per open. Its rare special item is the Rare Special Item pool (Bayonet, Flip Knife, Gut Knife, Karambit, M9 Bayonet) at 0.26% per open, roughly 1 in 385.
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Operation Vanguard Weapon Case FAQ
What's in the Operation Vanguard Weapon Case?
The Operation Vanguard Weapon Case contains 14 skins: 2 Covert (AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel, P2000 | Fire Elemental), 3 Classified, 4 Restricted and 5 Mil-Spec, plus a rare special item (Rare Special Item).
What are the Operation Vanguard Weapon Case odds?
Valve's published odds apply: Mil-Spec 79.92%, Restricted 15.98%, Classified 3.20%, Covert 0.64% and rare special 0.26%. Split across this case's items, each Covert skin is 0.32% per open and each Mil-Spec skin is 15.98%.
What knife or gloves can drop from the Operation Vanguard Weapon Case?
The Operation Vanguard Weapon Case's rare special item is a knife: Bayonet, Flip Knife, Gut Knife, Karambit, M9 Bayonet. It drops 0.26% of the time, about once every 385 opens, and can be StatTrak™.
Can the Operation Vanguard Weapon Case drop StatTrak™ items?
Yes. Every weapon and knife from the Operation Vanguard Weapon Case has a 10% chance to be StatTrak™, so a StatTrak™ Covert is about 0.064% per open.
Can I open the Operation Vanguard Weapon Case for free?
You can simulate it for free on this page. The simulator uses Valve's published odds and opens nothing real: no keys, no items, no money. In-game, opening a case needs its matching key.