- Win Rate
- 51.5%
- Pick Rate
- 2.9%
- Ban Rate
- 2.4%
Smolder vs Caitlyn
- Patch
- 26.21
- Games
- 5,765
- Lane
- All Lanes
- Tier
- All Tiers
- Last Updated
- Nov 3, 2026 UTC
- Author
- Dakota Chinnick
- Methodology
- Data Methodology
Smolder vs Caitlyn is a decisive matchup in LoL patch 26.21. Caitlyn wins with a 53.1% win rate (+6.2%) over Smolder based on 450 games. Caitlyn holds the advantage in both the early and late game. Below you'll find the best Smolder build, runes, laning stats, and strategies for the Smolder vs Caitlyn matchup.
Smolder Matchup Breakdown
Use the dropdown to select an opponent and see a detailed breakdown of how Smolder performs against them. You'll get head-to-head win rates, laning stats, the best build and runes for the matchup, and early vs late game analysis — all based on real ranked data.
Who wins Smolder vs Caitlyn?
Smolder wins 46.3% of these games. With this many games the true rate is most likely between 41.6% and 51.0% (95% range).
- Expected
- 53.0% From both champions' overall Bot win rates
- Matchup effect
- −6.8 pts Observed minus expected
- Sample
- 428 games Lane: Bot
- vs patch 26.20
- −4.4 pts Within normal patch-to-patch noise
Lane: Bot · Ranked Solo/Duo & Flex · North America server · All ranks · Patch 26.21 · Oct 27 – Nov 2
Key takeaways
- Current data slightly favors Caitlyn, but the sample is too limited for a strong conclusion: Smolder wins 46.3% of 428 games (95% range 41.6–51.0%).
- That is 6.8 points worse for Smolder than both champions' overall Bot win rates predict (53.0%), so the matchup itself works against this pick.
- Caitlyn usually wins the lane: 706 gold ahead of Smolder at 15 minutes on average (423 games with a 15-minute snapshot).
- Smolder players pick Magical Footwear far more often against Caitlyn: 84.7% of their other Bot games, 89.0% here.
How we calculate this
Games: ranked Solo/Duo and Flex games on the North America server from the patch shown. Remakes (games under 5 minutes) are excluded.
A game only counts when Smolder and Caitlyn played the same position on opposite teams, so roaming, lane swaps within a team or a champion merely being in the same game never count as this matchup.
The 95% range is a Wilson score interval. Confidence comes from how wide that range is: within ±3 points is very high, ±5 high, ±8 moderate, anything wider low. Below 20 games a matchup is not classified at all.
Expected win rate combines both champions’ win rates in this lane (same games and filters) with the log5 formula: E = A(1−B) / (A(1−B) + B(1−A)). Matchup effect = observed − expected.
"What changes" compares Smolder's choices in this matchup with the same champion's other games in the same lane, and lists a change only when it is at least 3 points and statistically significant (two-proportion z-test, |z| ≥ 2, 20+ games).
Results are not split by rank: the sample per rank is too small for honest per-rank matchup numbers.
Smolder vs Caitlyn Laning Stats
At 15 minutes
Whole-game averages
Smolder vs Caitlyn Win Rate by Game Length
Smolder's win rate against Caitlyn by game length. The dot is the win rate, the bar its 95% range and the dashed line the champion's usual win rate at that length. Lengths with fewer than 25 games are left blank.
No game length stands out: Smolder's results against Caitlyn in short and long games are within the margin of error of each other.
Smolder vs Caitlyn Power Spikes
Who is ahead at each stage, measured from these games. A stage reads "Even" when the difference is inside the margin of error, and "Insufficient data" when there are too few games to tell.
- Lane (15 min)CaitlynSmolder gold at 15: −706
- First itemCaitlynSmolder: 12.2 min · Caitlyn: 10.7 min
- Games under 20 minInsufficient data
- 20–30 min gamesEvenSmolder wins 42.9% of 140 games
- 30+ min gamesEvenSmolder wins 48.9% of 264 games
What Smolder Changes Against Caitlyn
Choices Smolder players make noticeably more or less often in this matchup than in their other Bot games.
Magical FootwearRuneUsually84.7%vs Caitlyn89.0%+4.3 pts47.0% WR here
Doran's Helm + Health PotionStarting itemsUsually8.9%vs Caitlyn12.9%+4.0 pts45.5% WR here
Move Speed (flex)Stat shardUsually90.9%vs Caitlyn94.9%+3.9 pts47.5% WR here
Adaptive Force (flex)Stat shardUsually8.6%vs Caitlyn4.9%−3.7 pts23.8% WR here
Nimbus CloakRuneUsually89.8%vs Caitlyn93.2%+3.4 pts47.4% WR here
Best Smolder Build vs Caitlyn
Usual Smolder build (Bot)
71.9% win rate · 57 games
Against Caitlyn
Not enough matchup-specific build data: only 15 of 331 Smolder games against Caitlyn carried a complete build, which is too few to recommend an item path from. Use Smolder's standard build instead.
- Smolder usually completes Essence Reaver first, at 12.2 min (median of 357 games).
- Caitlyn usually completes Hexoptics C44 first, at 10.7 min (median of 189 games).
- Skill priority: Q > W > E — the same as usual.
Builds are ranked by the lower edge of their win rate range, not the raw win rate, so a build seen in a handful of wins never outranks a proven one.
Best Smolder Runes vs Caitlyn
Usual Smolder runes (Bot)
Deathfire Touch
54.4% win rate · 1,903 games
Against Caitlyn
Deathfire Touch51.1% win rate · 176 games
Plan your Smolder draft in Draft Lab
Draft Lab lays out both teams lane by lane with live matchup win rates, damage profiles and game-phase lean, and suggests picks and bans from current meta data.
- Full 5v5 draft board
- Lane matchup win rates
- Pick and ban suggestions
Smolder matchup data for League of Legends patch 26.21. The table below shows Smolder's win rate, gold difference, and performance stats against every champion in the current meta. Click any champion name to see a detailed head-to-head breakdown including the best Smolder build, runes, laning stats, and early vs late game analysis for that specific matchup.
Other Smolder Matchups
Hardest for Smolder
Easiest for Smolder
Win rate and games for each matchup. Lists are ranked by the edge of the 95% range so small samples cannot top them; matchups with at least 50 games only.
Help us maintain accuracy! If you notice incorrect stats, missing data, or any issues, your feedback directly improves the quality of our data for the entire community.
Smolder vs Caitlyn FAQ - Patch 26.21
Who wins Smolder vs Caitlyn?
Current data slightly favors Caitlyn, but the sample is too limited for a strong conclusion: Smolder wins 46.3% of 428 games (95% range 41.6–51.0%).
What is Smolder's win rate against Caitlyn?
Smolder wins 46.3% of 428 Bot games against Caitlyn on patch 26.21 (95% range 41.6–51.0%). Based on both champions' overall Bot win rates, 53.0% would be expected.
Does Smolder counter Caitlyn?
Not clearly. Smolder wins 46.3% of 428 games against Caitlyn, and the 95% range (41.6–51.0%) includes 50%, so neither champion reliably counters the other on current data.
Who wins lane, Smolder or Caitlyn?
Caitlyn usually wins the lane: 706 gold ahead of Smolder at 15 minutes on average (423 games with a 15-minute snapshot).
Does Smolder outscale Caitlyn?
Not measurably: Smolder's win rate against Caitlyn in games of 25 minutes or less and in longer games is within the margin of error of each other.
When is Caitlyn strongest against Smolder?
Caitlyn is measurably ahead in: Lane (15 min), First item.
What should Smolder build against Caitlyn?
There are not enough games for a matchup-specific core, so use Smolder's usual Bot core: Essence Reaver, Black Cleaver, Endless Hunger. The biggest change against Caitlyn: Doran's Helm + Health Potion (8.9% usually, 12.9% here).
What runes should Smolder use against Caitlyn?
Deathfire Touch with Sorcery and Inspiration — 51.1% over 176 games against Caitlyn. The biggest change against Caitlyn: Magical Footwear (84.7% usually, 89.0% here).