- Win Rate
- 49.6%
- Pick Rate
- 9.4%
- Ban Rate
- 32.9%
Caitlyn vs Smolder
- Patch
- 26.21
- Games
- 18,831
- Lane
- All Lanes
- Tier
- All Tiers
- Last Updated
- Nov 3, 2026 UTC
- Author
- Dakota Chinnick
- Methodology
- Data Methodology
Caitlyn vs Smolder is a decisive matchup in LoL patch 26.21. Caitlyn wins with a 55.1% win rate (+10.3%) over Smolder based on 437 games. Caitlyn holds the advantage in both the early and late game. Below you'll find the best Caitlyn build, runes, laning stats, and strategies for the Caitlyn vs Smolder matchup.
Caitlyn Matchup Breakdown
Use the dropdown to select an opponent and see a detailed breakdown of how Caitlyn performs against them. You'll get head-to-head win rates, laning stats, the best build and runes for the matchup, and early vs late game analysis — all based on real ranked data.
Who wins Caitlyn vs Smolder?
Caitlyn wins 55.8% of these games. With this many games the true rate is most likely between 51.0% and 60.5% (95% range).
- Expected
- 47.0% From both champions' overall Bot win rates
- Matchup effect
- +8.7 pts Observed minus expected
- Sample
- 416 games Lane: Bot
- vs patch 26.20
- +6.5 pts A real change since last patch
Lane: Bot · Ranked Solo/Duo & Flex · North America server · All ranks · Patch 26.21 · Oct 27 – Nov 3
Key takeaways
- Caitlyn is favored in this matchup: Caitlyn wins 55.8% of 416 games, and the whole 95% range (51.0–60.5%) is on the same side of 50%.
- That is 8.7 points better for Caitlyn than both champions' overall Bot win rates predict (47.0%), so the matchup itself favors this pick — not just champion strength.
- Caitlyn usually wins the lane: 694 gold ahead of Smolder at 15 minutes on average (409 games with a 15-minute snapshot).
- Caitlyn players pick Fleet Footwork far more often against Smolder: 13.7% of their other Bot games, 17.5% here.
How we calculate this
Games: ranked Solo/Duo and Flex games on the North America server from the patch shown. Remakes (games under 5 minutes) are excluded.
A game only counts when Caitlyn and Smolder played the same position on opposite teams, so roaming, lane swaps within a team or a champion merely being in the same game never count as this matchup.
The 95% range is a Wilson score interval. Confidence comes from how wide that range is: within ±3 points is very high, ±5 high, ±8 moderate, anything wider low. Below 20 games a matchup is not classified at all.
Expected win rate combines both champions’ win rates in this lane (same games and filters) with the log5 formula: E = A(1−B) / (A(1−B) + B(1−A)). Matchup effect = observed − expected.
"What changes" compares Caitlyn's choices in this matchup with the same champion's other games in the same lane, and lists a change only when it is at least 3 points and statistically significant (two-proportion z-test, |z| ≥ 2, 20+ games).
Results are not split by rank: the sample per rank is too small for honest per-rank matchup numbers.
Caitlyn vs Smolder Laning Stats
At 15 minutes
Whole-game averages
Caitlyn vs Smolder Win Rate by Game Length
Caitlyn's win rate against Smolder by game length. The dot is the win rate, the bar its 95% range and the dashed line the champion's usual win rate at that length. Lengths with fewer than 25 games are left blank.
No game length stands out: Caitlyn's results against Smolder in short and long games are within the margin of error of each other.
Caitlyn vs Smolder Power Spikes
Who is ahead at each stage, measured from these games. A stage reads "Even" when the difference is inside the margin of error, and "Insufficient data" when there are too few games to tell.
- Lane (15 min)CaitlynCaitlyn gold at 15: +694
- First itemCaitlynCaitlyn: 10.7 min · Smolder: 12.3 min
- Games under 20 minInsufficient data
- 20–30 min gamesCaitlynCaitlyn wins 63.8% of 130 games
- 30+ min gamesEvenCaitlyn wins 50.6% of 257 games
What Caitlyn Changes Against Smolder
Choices Caitlyn players make noticeably more or less often in this matchup than in their other Bot games.
Fleet FootworkKeystoneUsually13.7%vs Smolder17.5%+3.9 pts52.1% WR here
Cut DownRuneUsually11.0%vs Smolder7.7%−3.3 pts62.5% WR here
Best Caitlyn Build vs Smolder
Usual Caitlyn build (Bot)
80.8% win rate · 26 games
Against Smolder
74.2% win rate · 31 games
Limited sample: 31 of 308 games finished this exact core, so treat it as an observation rather than a recommendation.
- Caitlyn usually completes Hexoptics C44 first, at 10.7 min (median of 182 games).
- Smolder usually completes Essence Reaver first, at 12.3 min (median of 337 games).
- Skill priority: Q > W > E — the same as usual.
Builds are ranked by the lower edge of their win rate range, not the raw win rate, so a build seen in a handful of wins never outranks a proven one.
Best Caitlyn Runes vs Smolder
Usual Caitlyn runes (Bot)
Lethal Tempo
58.6% win rate · 222 games
Against Smolder
Lethal Tempo
58.9% win rate · 197 games
Plan your Caitlyn draft in Draft Lab
Draft Lab lays out both teams lane by lane with live matchup win rates, damage profiles and game-phase lean, and suggests picks and bans from current meta data.
- Full 5v5 draft board
- Lane matchup win rates
- Pick and ban suggestions
Caitlyn matchup data for League of Legends patch 26.21. The table below shows Caitlyn's win rate, gold difference, and performance stats against every champion in the current meta. Click any champion name to see a detailed head-to-head breakdown including the best Caitlyn build, runes, laning stats, and early vs late game analysis for that specific matchup.
Other Caitlyn Matchups
Hardest for Caitlyn
Easiest for Caitlyn
Win rate and games for each matchup. Lists are ranked by the edge of the 95% range so small samples cannot top them; matchups with at least 50 games only.
Help us maintain accuracy! If you notice incorrect stats, missing data, or any issues, your feedback directly improves the quality of our data for the entire community.
Caitlyn vs Smolder FAQ - Patch 26.21
Who wins Caitlyn vs Smolder?
Caitlyn is favored in this matchup: Caitlyn wins 55.8% of 416 games, and the whole 95% range (51.0–60.5%) is on the same side of 50%.
What is Caitlyn's win rate against Smolder?
Caitlyn wins 55.8% of 416 Bot games against Smolder on patch 26.21 (95% range 51.0–60.5%). Based on both champions' overall Bot win rates, 47.0% would be expected.
Does Caitlyn counter Smolder?
Yes. Caitlyn wins 55.8% of 416 games against Smolder on patch 26.21, and the whole 95% range is above 50%.
Who wins lane, Caitlyn or Smolder?
Caitlyn usually wins the lane: 694 gold ahead of Smolder at 15 minutes on average (409 games with a 15-minute snapshot).
Does Caitlyn outscale Smolder?
Not measurably: Caitlyn's win rate against Smolder in games of 25 minutes or less and in longer games is within the margin of error of each other.
When is Smolder strongest against Caitlyn?
On current data there is no stage of the game where Smolder is ahead of Caitlyn beyond the margin of error.
What should Caitlyn build against Smolder?
The most successful Caitlyn core against Smolder is Rapid Firecannon, Lord Dominik's Regards, Infinity Edge (74.2% over 31 games).
What runes should Caitlyn use against Smolder?
Lethal Tempo with Precision and Sorcery — 58.9% over 197 games against Smolder. The biggest change against Smolder: Fleet Footwork (13.7% usually, 17.5% here).