- Win Rate
- 53.2%
- Pick Rate
- 3.4%
- Ban Rate
- 2.3%
Smolder vs Lucian
- Patch
- 26.22
- Games
- 1,190
- Lane
- All Lanes
- Tier
- All Tiers
- Last Updated
- Nov 6, 2026 UTC
- Author
- Dakota Chinnick
- Methodology
- Data Methodology
Smolder vs Lucian is a decisive matchup in LoL patch 26.22. Smolder wins with a 61.9% win rate (+23.8%) over Lucian based on 42 games. Smolder holds the advantage in both the early and late game. Below you'll find the best Smolder build, runes, laning stats, and strategies for the Smolder vs Lucian matchup.
Smolder Matchup Breakdown
Use the dropdown to select an opponent and see a detailed breakdown of how Smolder performs against them. You'll get head-to-head win rates, laning stats, the best build and runes for the matchup, and early vs late game analysis — all based on real ranked data.
Who wins Smolder vs Lucian?
Smolder wins 63.4% of these games. With this many games the true rate is most likely between 48.1% and 76.4% (95% range).
- Expected
- 56.8% From both champions' overall Bot win rates
- Matchup effect
- +6.6 pts Observed minus expected
- Sample
- 41 games Lane: Bot
- vs patch 26.21
- — Not enough games on both patches
Lane: Bot · Ranked Solo/Duo & Flex · North America server · All ranks · Patch 26.22 · Nov 4 – Nov 6
Key takeaways
- Current data slightly favors Smolder, but the sample is too limited for a strong conclusion: Smolder wins 63.4% of 41 games (95% range 48.1–76.4%).
- Both champions' overall Bot win rates predict 56.8% for Smolder; the result is within the margin of error of that, so this matchup mostly reflects the two champions' general strength.
- Lucian usually wins the lane: 644 gold ahead of Smolder at 15 minutes on average (41 games with a 15-minute snapshot).
- Smolder players pick Black Cleaver far more often against Lucian: 49.6% of their other Bot games, 70.7% here.
How we calculate this
Games: ranked Solo/Duo and Flex games on the North America server from the patch shown. Remakes (games under 5 minutes) are excluded.
A game only counts when Smolder and Lucian played the same position on opposite teams, so roaming, lane swaps within a team or a champion merely being in the same game never count as this matchup.
The 95% range is a Wilson score interval. Confidence comes from how wide that range is: within ±3 points is very high, ±5 high, ±8 moderate, anything wider low. Below 20 games a matchup is not classified at all.
Expected win rate combines both champions’ win rates in this lane (same games and filters) with the log5 formula: E = A(1−B) / (A(1−B) + B(1−A)). Matchup effect = observed − expected.
"What changes" compares Smolder's choices in this matchup with the same champion's other games in the same lane, and lists a change only when it is at least 3 points and statistically significant (two-proportion z-test, |z| ≥ 2, 20+ games).
Results are not split by rank: the sample per rank is too small for honest per-rank matchup numbers.
Smolder vs Lucian Laning Stats
At 15 minutes
Whole-game averages
Smolder vs Lucian Win Rate by Game Length
Smolder's win rate against Lucian by game length. The dot is the win rate, the bar its 95% range and the dashed line the champion's usual win rate at that length. Lengths with fewer than 25 games are left blank.
No game length stands out: Smolder's results against Lucian in short and long games are within the margin of error of each other.
Smolder vs Lucian Power Spikes
Who is ahead at each stage, measured from these games. A stage reads "Even" when the difference is inside the margin of error, and "Insufficient data" when there are too few games to tell.
- Lane (15 min)LucianSmolder gold at 15: −644
- First itemLucianSmolder: 12.3 min · Lucian: 11.0 min
- Games under 20 minInsufficient data
- 20–30 min gamesInsufficient data
- 30+ min gamesInsufficient data
What Smolder Changes Against Lucian
Choices Smolder players make noticeably more or less often in this matchup than in their other Bot games.
Black CleaverItemUsually49.6%vs Lucian70.7%+21.1 pts62.1% WR here
Press the AttackKeystoneUsually1.0%vs Lucian4.9%+3.8 pts
Best Smolder Build vs Lucian
Usual Smolder build (Bot)
60.1% win rate · 158 games
Against Lucian
Not enough matchup-specific build data: only 8 of 28 Smolder games against Lucian carried a complete build, which is too few to recommend an item path from. Use Smolder's standard build instead.
- Smolder usually completes Essence Reaver first, at 12.3 min (median of 36 games).
- Lucian usually completes Essence Reaver first, at 11.0 min (median of 29 games).
- Skill priority: Q > W > E — the same as usual.
Builds are ranked by the lower edge of their win rate range, not the raw win rate, so a build seen in a handful of wins never outranks a proven one.
Best Smolder Runes vs Lucian
Usual Smolder runes (Bot)
Deathfire Touch
60.8% win rate · 222 games
Against Lucian
Too few games for a matchup-specific rune page yet — use the usual page.
Plan your Smolder draft in Draft Lab
Draft Lab lays out both teams lane by lane with live matchup win rates, damage profiles and game-phase lean, and suggests picks and bans from current meta data.
- Full 5v5 draft board
- Lane matchup win rates
- Pick and ban suggestions
Smolder matchup data for League of Legends patch 26.22. The table below shows Smolder's win rate, gold difference, and performance stats against every champion in the current meta. Click any champion name to see a detailed head-to-head breakdown including the best Smolder build, runes, laning stats, and early vs late game analysis for that specific matchup.
Other Smolder Matchups
Hardest for Smolder
Easiest for Smolder
Win rate and games for each matchup. Lists are ranked by the edge of the 95% range so small samples cannot top them; matchups with at least 50 games only.
Help us maintain accuracy! If you notice incorrect stats, missing data, or any issues, your feedback directly improves the quality of our data for the entire community.
Smolder vs Lucian FAQ - Patch 26.22
Who wins Smolder vs Lucian?
Current data slightly favors Smolder, but the sample is too limited for a strong conclusion: Smolder wins 63.4% of 41 games (95% range 48.1–76.4%).
What is Smolder's win rate against Lucian?
Smolder wins 63.4% of 41 Bot games against Lucian on patch 26.22 (95% range 48.1–76.4%). Based on both champions' overall Bot win rates, 56.8% would be expected.
Does Smolder counter Lucian?
Not clearly. Smolder wins 63.4% of 41 games against Lucian, and the 95% range (48.1–76.4%) includes 50%, so neither champion reliably counters the other on current data.
Who wins lane, Smolder or Lucian?
Lucian usually wins the lane: 644 gold ahead of Smolder at 15 minutes on average (41 games with a 15-minute snapshot).
Does Smolder outscale Lucian?
There are too few games of each length to tell yet.
When is Lucian strongest against Smolder?
Lucian is measurably ahead in: Lane (15 min), First item.
What should Smolder build against Lucian?
There are not enough games for a matchup-specific core, so use Smolder's usual Bot core: Essence Reaver, Spear of Shojin, Rapid Firecannon. The biggest change against Lucian: Black Cleaver (49.6% usually, 70.7% here).
What runes should Smolder use against Lucian?
Use Smolder's usual Deathfire Touch page (Sorcery + Inspiration); there are too few games for a matchup-specific page. The biggest change against Lucian: Press the Attack (1.0% usually, 4.9% here).