Lucianvs Smolder
Lucian vs Smolder is a decisive matchup in LoL patch 26.18. Smolder wins with a 67.2% win rate (+34.4%) over Lucian based on 64 games. Smolder holds the advantage in both the early and late game. Below you'll find the best Lucian build, runes, laning stats, and strategies for the Lucian vs Smolder matchup.
Lucian Matchup Breakdown
Use the dropdown to select an opponent and see a detailed breakdown of how Lucian performs against them. You'll get head-to-head win rates, laning stats, the best build and runes for the matchup, and early vs late game analysis — all based on real ranked data.
Who wins Lucian vs Smolder?
Lucian wins 34.5% of these games. With this many games the true rate is most likely between 23.6% and 47.3% (95% range).
- Expected
- 47.7% From both champions' overall Bot win rates
- Matchup effect
- −13.3 pts Observed minus expected
- Sample
- 58 games Lane: Bot
Lane: Bot · Ranked Solo/Duo & Flex · North America server · All ranks · Patch 26.18 · Sep 11 – Sep 14
Key takeaways
- Smolder is favored in this matchup: Lucian wins 34.5% of 58 games, and the whole 95% range (23.6–47.3%) is on the same side of 50%.
- That is 13.3 points worse for Lucian than both champions' overall Bot win rates predict (47.7%), so the matchup itself works against this pick.
- Lucian usually wins the lane: 634 gold ahead of Smolder at 15 minutes on average (58 games with a 15-minute snapshot).
- Lucian players pick Manaflow Band much less often against Smolder: 10.7% of their other Bot games, under 2% here.
How we calculate this
Games: ranked Solo/Duo and Flex games on the North America server from the patch shown. Remakes (games under 5 minutes) are excluded.
A game only counts when Lucian and Smolder played the same position on opposite teams, so roaming, lane swaps within a team or a champion merely being in the same game never count as this matchup.
The 95% range is a Wilson score interval. Confidence comes from how wide that range is: within ±3 points is very high, ±5 high, ±8 moderate, anything wider low. Below 20 games a matchup is not classified at all.
Expected win rate combines both champions’ win rates in this lane (same games and filters) with the log5 formula: E = A(1−B) / (A(1−B) + B(1−A)). Matchup effect = observed − expected.
"What changes" compares Lucian's choices in this matchup with the same champion's other games in the same lane, and lists a change only when it is at least 3 points and statistically significant (two-proportion z-test, |z| ≥ 2, 20+ games).
Results are not split by rank: the sample per rank is too small for honest per-rank matchup numbers.
Lucian vs Smolder Laning Stats
At 15 minutes
Solo kills are tracked from this patch on — 0 games have them so far, shown from 30.
Whole-game averages
Lucian vs Smolder Win Rate by Game Length
Lucian's win rate against Smolder by game length. The dot is the win rate, the bar its 95% range and the dashed line the champion's usual win rate at that length. Lengths with fewer than 25 games are left blank.
No game length stands out: Lucian's results against Smolder in short and long games are within the margin of error of each other.
Lucian vs Smolder Power Spikes
Who is ahead at each stage, measured from these games. A stage reads "Even" when the difference is inside the margin of error, and "Insufficient data" when there are too few games to tell.
- Lane (15 min)LucianLucian gold at 15: +634
- First itemLucianLucian: 11.1 min · Smolder: 11.9 min
- Games under 20 minInsufficient data
- 20–30 min gamesInsufficient data
- 30+ min gamesInsufficient data
What Lucian Changes Against Smolder
Choices Lucian players make noticeably more or less often in this matchup than in their other Bot games.
Manaflow BandRuneUsually10.7%vs Smolderunder 2%−10.7 pts
ScorchRuneUsually10.5%vs Smolderunder 2%−10.5 pts
Cut DownRuneUsually14.6%vs Smolder24.1%+9.5 pts
Usually3.5%vs Smolder8.6%+5.1 pts
Best Lucian Build vs Smolder
Usual Lucian build (Bot)
69.6% win rate · 46 games
Against Smolder
Not enough matchup-specific build data: only 6 of 45 Lucian games against Smolder carried a complete build, which is too few to recommend an item path from. Use Lucian's standard build instead.
- Lucian usually completes Essence Reaver first, at 11.1 min (median of 42 games).
- Smolder usually completes Essence Reaver first, at 11.9 min (median of 45 games).
- Skill priority: Q > E > W — the same as usual.
Builds are ranked by the lower edge of their win rate range, not the raw win rate, so a build seen in a handful of wins never outranks a proven one.
Best Lucian Runes vs Smolder
Usual Lucian runes (Bot)
Press the Attack
67.9% win rate · 28 games
Against Smolder
Press the Attack
44.0% win rate · 25 games
Lucian matchup data for League of Legends patch 26.18. The table below shows Lucian's win rate, gold difference, and performance stats against every champion in the current meta. Click any champion name to see a detailed head-to-head breakdown including the best Lucian build, runes, laning stats, and early vs late game analysis for that specific matchup.
Other Lucian Matchups
Hardest for Lucian
Easiest for Lucian
Win rate and games for each matchup. Lists are ranked by the edge of the 95% range so small samples cannot top them; matchups with at least 50 games only.
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Lucian vs Smolder FAQ - Patch 26.18
Who wins Lucian vs Smolder?
Smolder is favored in this matchup: Lucian wins 34.5% of 58 games, and the whole 95% range (23.6–47.3%) is on the same side of 50%.
What is Lucian's win rate against Smolder?
Lucian wins 34.5% of 58 Bot games against Smolder on patch 26.18 (95% range 23.6–47.3%). Based on both champions' overall Bot win rates, 47.7% would be expected.
Does Lucian counter Smolder?
No — it is the other way around: Lucian wins only 34.5% of 58 games against Smolder, and the whole 95% range is below 50%.
Who wins lane, Lucian or Smolder?
Lucian usually wins the lane: 634 gold ahead of Smolder at 15 minutes on average (58 games with a 15-minute snapshot).
Does Lucian outscale Smolder?
There are too few games of each length to tell yet.
When is Smolder strongest against Lucian?
On current data there is no stage of the game where Smolder is ahead of Lucian beyond the margin of error.
What should Lucian build against Smolder?
There are not enough games for a matchup-specific core, so use Lucian's usual Bot core: The Collector, Essence Reaver, Infinity Edge. The biggest change against Smolder: Slightly Magical Footwear (3.5% usually, 8.6% here).
What runes should Lucian use against Smolder?
Press the Attack with Precision and Inspiration — 44.0% over 25 games against Smolder. The biggest change against Smolder: Manaflow Band (10.7% usually, under 2% here).