Shadow Case The Shadow Collection
- Skins
- 16
- Covert
- 2
- Rare Special Item
- Shadow Daggers
- Methodology
- Data Methodology
- Author
- Dakota Chinnick
The Shadow Case holds 16 skins plus a rare special item (Shadow Daggers). Its Covert skins are M4A1-S | Golden Coil, USP-S | Kill Confirmed. Below you'll find every item with its exact drop chance from Valve's published odds and a simulator to open it for free.
Shadow Case contents
All 16 skins, highest rarity first. Each item's chance is its rarity's published odds split evenly across the items in that rarity.
★ Rare Special Item
0.26%
★ Shadow Daggers
1 in about 385 opens (0.26%) gives a rare special item. In this case that's this knife, in any of its finishes:
- ★ Shadow Daggers
Classified
3 items · 3.2% total
Restricted
4 items · 15.98% total
Case opening simulator
Open the Shadow Case as often as you like and compare your results with Valve's odds. Single opens play the reel; ×10 rolls ten at once.
Simulation only. Nothing here is real: no keys, no items, no money. Every roll uses Valve's published odds and an even split within each rarity.
Your results vs expected
| Rarity | You got | Expected |
|---|---|---|
| Rare Special Item | 0 | 0 |
| Covert | 0 | 0 |
| Classified | 0 | 0 |
| Restricted | 0 | 0 |
| Mil-Spec Grade | 0 | 0 |
Session history
Open a case to start your session.
Shadow Case drop odds
Valve's published odds by rarity, with the number of Shadow Case items in each rarity and the resulting chance per item. A specific Covert skin is 0.32% per open, and any single Mil-Spec skin is 11.42%.
| Rarity | Chance | About 1 in | Items | Per item |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rare Special Item | 0.26% | 385 | 1 | 0.26% |
| Covert | 0.64% | 156 | 2 | 0.32% |
| Classified | 3.2% | 31 | 3 | 1.07% |
| Restricted | 15.98% | 6 | 4 | 4% |
| Mil-Spec Grade | 79.92% | 1 | 7 | 11.42% |
Source: the odds Valve publishes for CS2 weapon cases. Inside a rarity, every item is equally likely. Any weapon (and any knife) also has a 10% chance to be StatTrak™. Gloves are never StatTrak™.
The Shadow Case (The Shadow Collection) contains 16 skins: 2 Covert, 3 Classified, 4 Restricted and 7 Mil-Spec. With Valve's published odds, each Covert skin (M4A1-S | Golden Coil, USP-S | Kill Confirmed) drops 0.32% of the time, and a StatTrak™ Covert is about 0.064% per open. Its rare special item is the Shadow Daggers pool (Shadow Daggers) at 0.26% per open, roughly 1 in 385.
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Shadow Case FAQ
What's in the Shadow Case?
The Shadow Case contains 16 skins: 2 Covert (M4A1-S | Golden Coil, USP-S | Kill Confirmed), 3 Classified, 4 Restricted and 7 Mil-Spec, plus a rare special item (Shadow Daggers).
What are the Shadow Case odds?
Valve's published odds apply: Mil-Spec 79.92%, Restricted 15.98%, Classified 3.20%, Covert 0.64% and rare special 0.26%. Split across this case's items, each Covert skin is 0.32% per open and each Mil-Spec skin is 11.42%.
What knife or gloves can drop from the Shadow Case?
The Shadow Case's rare special item is a knife: Shadow Daggers. It drops 0.26% of the time, about once every 385 opens, and can be StatTrak™.
Can the Shadow Case drop StatTrak™ items?
Yes. Every weapon and knife from the Shadow Case has a 10% chance to be StatTrak™, so a StatTrak™ Covert is about 0.064% per open.
Can I open the Shadow Case for free?
You can simulate it for free on this page. The simulator uses Valve's published odds and opens nothing real: no keys, no items, no money. In-game, opening a case needs its matching key.