- Win Rate
- 48.3%
- Pick Rate
- 6.2%
- Ban Rate
- 22.1%
Caitlyn vs Lucian
- Patch
- 26.22
- Games
- 12,059
- Lane
- All Lanes
- Tier
- All Tiers
- Last Updated
- Nov 14, 2026 UTC
- Author
- Dakota Chinnick
- Methodology
- Data Methodology
Caitlyn vs Lucian (Bot): Caitlyn wins 51.1% of 999 ranked games over the last 2 patches (gold diff at 15: +12). Patch 26.22 build & runes.
Caitlyn51.1%
Caitlyn vs Lucian is an even matchup: Caitlyn wins 51.1% of 999 games, and the 95% range (48.0–54.1%) comfortably includes 50%.
Caitlyn Matchup Breakdown
Use the dropdown to select an opponent and see a detailed breakdown of how Caitlyn performs against them. You'll get head-to-head win rates, laning stats, the best build and runes for the matchup, and early vs late game analysis — all based on real ranked data.
Who wins Caitlyn vs Lucian?
Caitlyn wins 51.1% of these games. With this many games the true rate is most likely between 48.0% and 54.1% (95% range).
- Expected
- 49.6% From both champions' overall Bot win rates
- Matchup effect
- +1.5 pts Observed minus expected
- Sample
- 999 games Lane: Bot · Patch 26.21–26.22
- vs patch 26.21
- −5.3 pts Within normal patch-to-patch noise
Lane: Bot · Ranked Solo/Duo & Flex · North America server · All ranks · Patch 26.21–26.22 · Oct 27 – Nov 14
The headline win rate covers patches 26.21–26.22 (999 games). The lane, game-length, build and rune sections below use patch 26.22 only (443 games).
Key takeaways
- Caitlyn vs Lucian is an even matchup: Caitlyn wins 51.1% of 999 games, and the 95% range (48.0–54.1%) comfortably includes 50%.
- Both champions' overall Bot win rates predict 49.6% for Caitlyn; the result is within the margin of error of that, so this matchup mostly reflects the two champions' general strength.
- Neither side reliably wins the lane: the average gold difference at 15 minutes is 12, within the margin of error (440 games).
- Caitlyn players pick First Strike much less often against Lucian: 8.9% of their other Bot games, 5.4% here.
How we calculate this
Games: ranked Solo/Duo and Flex games on the North America server from the patch shown. Remakes (games under 5 minutes) are excluded.
A game only counts when Caitlyn and Lucian played the same position on opposite teams, so roaming, lane swaps within a team or a champion merely being in the same game never count as this matchup.
The 95% range is a Wilson score interval. Confidence comes from how wide that range is: within ±3 points is very high, ±5 high, ±8 moderate, anything wider low. Below 20 games a matchup is not classified at all.
Expected win rate combines both champions’ win rates in this lane (same games and filters) with the log5 formula: E = A(1−B) / (A(1−B) + B(1−A)). Matchup effect = observed − expected.
"What changes" compares Caitlyn's choices in this matchup with the same champion's other games in the same lane, and lists a change only when it is at least 3 points and statistically significant (two-proportion z-test, |z| ≥ 2, 20+ games).
Results are not split by rank: the sample per rank is too small for honest per-rank matchup numbers.
Caitlyn vs Lucian Laning Stats
At 15 minutes
Whole-game averages
Caitlyn vs Lucian Win Rate by Game Length
Caitlyn's win rate against Lucian by game length. The dot is the win rate, the bar its 95% range and the dashed line the champion's usual win rate at that length. Lengths with fewer than 25 games are left blank.
No game length stands out: Caitlyn's results against Lucian in short and long games are within the margin of error of each other.
Caitlyn vs Lucian Power Spikes
Who is ahead at each stage, measured from these games. A stage reads "Even" when the difference is inside the margin of error, and "Insufficient data" when there are too few games to tell.
- Lane (15 min)EvenCaitlyn gold at 15: +12
- First itemEvenCaitlyn: 10.6 min · Lucian: 11.0 min
- Games under 20 minEvenCaitlyn wins 45.8% of 48 games
- 20–30 min gamesEvenCaitlyn wins 47.5% of 183 games
- 30+ min gamesEvenCaitlyn wins 49.1% of 212 games
What Caitlyn Changes Against Lucian
Choices Caitlyn players make noticeably more or less often in this matchup than in their other Bot games.
First StrikeKeystoneUsually8.9%vs Lucian5.4%−3.5 pts45.8% WR here
Best Caitlyn Build vs Lucian
Usual Caitlyn build (Bot)
90.0% win rate · 10 games
Against Lucian
58.1% win rate · 31 games
Limited sample: 31 of 306 games finished this exact core, so treat it as an observation rather than a recommendation.
- Caitlyn usually completes Hexoptics C44 first, at 10.6 min (median of 240 games).
- Lucian usually completes Essence Reaver first, at 11.0 min (median of 384 games).
- Skill priority: Q > W > E — the same as usual.
Builds are ranked by the lower edge of their win rate range, not the raw win rate, so a build seen in a handful of wins never outranks a proven one.
Best Caitlyn Runes vs Lucian
Usual Caitlyn runes (Bot)
Lethal Tempo
73.9% win rate · 23 games
Against Lucian
Lethal Tempo
48.8% win rate · 205 games
Plan your Caitlyn draft in Draft Lab
Draft Lab lays out both teams lane by lane with live matchup win rates, damage profiles and game-phase lean, and suggests picks and bans from current meta data.
- Full 5v5 draft board
- Lane matchup win rates
- Pick and ban suggestions
Caitlyn matchup data for League of Legends patch 26.22. The table below shows Caitlyn's win rate, gold difference, and performance stats against every champion in the current meta. Click any champion name to see a detailed head-to-head breakdown including the best Caitlyn build, runes, laning stats, and early vs late game analysis for that specific matchup.
Other Caitlyn Matchups
Hardest for Caitlyn
Easiest for Caitlyn
Win rate and games for each matchup. Lists are ranked by the edge of the 95% range so small samples cannot top them; matchups with at least 50 games only.
Help us maintain accuracy! If you notice incorrect stats, missing data, or any issues, your feedback directly improves the quality of our data for the entire community.
Caitlyn vs Lucian FAQ - Patch 26.21–26.22
Who wins Caitlyn vs Lucian?
Caitlyn vs Lucian is an even matchup: Caitlyn wins 51.1% of 999 games, and the 95% range (48.0–54.1%) comfortably includes 50%.
What is Caitlyn's win rate against Lucian?
Caitlyn wins 51.1% of 999 Bot games against Lucian on patch 26.21–26.22 (95% range 48.0–54.1%). Based on both champions' overall Bot win rates, 49.6% would be expected.
Does Caitlyn counter Lucian?
Not clearly. Caitlyn wins 51.1% of 999 games against Lucian, and the 95% range (48.0–54.1%) includes 50%, so neither champion reliably counters the other on current data.
Who wins lane, Caitlyn or Lucian?
Neither side reliably wins the lane: the average gold difference at 15 minutes is 12, within the margin of error (440 games).
Does Caitlyn outscale Lucian?
Not measurably: Caitlyn's win rate against Lucian in games of 25 minutes or less and in longer games is within the margin of error of each other.
When is Lucian strongest against Caitlyn?
On current data there is no stage of the game where Lucian is ahead of Caitlyn beyond the margin of error.
What should Caitlyn build against Lucian?
The most successful Caitlyn core against Lucian is The Collector, Lord Dominik's Regards, Infinity Edge (58.1% over 31 games).
What runes should Caitlyn use against Lucian?
Lethal Tempo with Precision and Sorcery — 48.8% over 205 games against Lucian. The biggest change against Lucian: First Strike (8.9% usually, 5.4% here).