- Win Rate
- 48.1%
- Pick Rate
- 4.1%
- Ban Rate
- 2.4%
Lucian vs Caitlyn
- Patch
- 26.22
- Games
- 8,040
- Lane
- All Lanes
- Tier
- All Tiers
- Last Updated
- Nov 14, 2026 UTC
- Author
- Dakota Chinnick
- Methodology
- Data Methodology
Lucian vs Caitlyn (Bot): Lucian wins 48.9% of 999 ranked games over the last 2 patches (gold diff at 15: -12). Patch 26.22 build & runes.
Lucian48.9%
Lucian vs Caitlyn is an even matchup: Lucian wins 48.9% of 999 games, and the 95% range (45.9–52.0%) comfortably includes 50%.
Lucian Matchup Breakdown
Use the dropdown to select an opponent and see a detailed breakdown of how Lucian performs against them. You'll get head-to-head win rates, laning stats, the best build and runes for the matchup, and early vs late game analysis — all based on real ranked data.
Who wins Lucian vs Caitlyn?
Lucian wins 48.9% of these games. With this many games the true rate is most likely between 45.9% and 52.0% (95% range).
- Expected
- 50.4% From both champions' overall Bot win rates
- Matchup effect
- −1.5 pts Observed minus expected
- Sample
- 999 games Lane: Bot · Patch 26.21–26.22
- vs patch 26.21
- +5.3 pts Within normal patch-to-patch noise
Lane: Bot · Ranked Solo/Duo & Flex · North America server · All ranks · Patch 26.21–26.22 · Oct 27 – Nov 14
The headline win rate covers patches 26.21–26.22 (999 games). The lane, game-length, build and rune sections below use patch 26.22 only (443 games).
Key takeaways
- Lucian vs Caitlyn is an even matchup: Lucian wins 48.9% of 999 games, and the 95% range (45.9–52.0%) comfortably includes 50%.
- Both champions' overall Bot win rates predict 50.4% for Lucian; the result is within the margin of error of that, so this matchup mostly reflects the two champions' general strength.
- Neither side reliably wins the lane: the average gold difference at 15 minutes is 12, within the margin of error (440 games).
- Lucian players pick Flash + Barrier far more often against Caitlyn: 65.7% of their other Bot games, 79.2% here.
How we calculate this
Games: ranked Solo/Duo and Flex games on the North America server from the patch shown. Remakes (games under 5 minutes) are excluded.
A game only counts when Lucian and Caitlyn played the same position on opposite teams, so roaming, lane swaps within a team or a champion merely being in the same game never count as this matchup.
The 95% range is a Wilson score interval. Confidence comes from how wide that range is: within ±3 points is very high, ±5 high, ±8 moderate, anything wider low. Below 20 games a matchup is not classified at all.
Expected win rate combines both champions’ win rates in this lane (same games and filters) with the log5 formula: E = A(1−B) / (A(1−B) + B(1−A)). Matchup effect = observed − expected.
"What changes" compares Lucian's choices in this matchup with the same champion's other games in the same lane, and lists a change only when it is at least 3 points and statistically significant (two-proportion z-test, |z| ≥ 2, 20+ games).
Results are not split by rank: the sample per rank is too small for honest per-rank matchup numbers.
Lucian vs Caitlyn Laning Stats
At 15 minutes
Whole-game averages
Lucian vs Caitlyn Win Rate by Game Length
Lucian's win rate against Caitlyn by game length. The dot is the win rate, the bar its 95% range and the dashed line the champion's usual win rate at that length. Lengths with fewer than 25 games are left blank.
No game length stands out: Lucian's results against Caitlyn in short and long games are within the margin of error of each other.
Lucian vs Caitlyn Power Spikes
Who is ahead at each stage, measured from these games. A stage reads "Even" when the difference is inside the margin of error, and "Insufficient data" when there are too few games to tell.
- Lane (15 min)EvenLucian gold at 15: −12
- First itemEvenLucian: 11.0 min · Caitlyn: 10.6 min
- Games under 20 minEvenLucian wins 54.2% of 48 games
- 20–30 min gamesEvenLucian wins 52.5% of 183 games
- 30+ min gamesEvenLucian wins 50.9% of 212 games
What Lucian Changes Against Caitlyn
Choices Lucian players make noticeably more or less often in this matchup than in their other Bot games.
Flash + BarrierSummoner spellsUsually65.7%vs Caitlyn79.2%+13.5 pts51.3% WR here
Exhaust + FlashSummoner spellsUsually25.2%vs Caitlyn13.5%−11.7 pts58.3% WR here
Health (defense)Stat shardUsually41.7%vs Caitlyn33.9%−7.9 pts55.3% WR here
Cut DownRuneUsually40.2%vs Caitlyn32.7%−7.5 pts55.9% WR here- Health Scaling (defense)Stat shardUsually57.4%vs Caitlyn64.8%+7.4 pts50.5% WR here
Berserker's GreavesBootsUsually16.6%vs Caitlyn23.3%+6.7 pts49.5% WR here
Cosmic InsightRuneUsually24.1%vs Caitlyn17.8%−6.2 pts58.2% WR here
Biscuit DeliveryRuneUsually48.4%vs Caitlyn54.4%+6.0 pts53.9% WR here
Best Lucian Build vs Caitlyn
Usual Lucian build (Bot)
56.9% win rate · 1,164 games
Against Caitlyn
61.4% win rate · 70 games
- Lucian usually completes Essence Reaver first, at 11.0 min (median of 384 games).
- Caitlyn usually completes Hexoptics C44 first, at 10.6 min (median of 240 games).
- Skill priority: Q > E > W — the same as usual.
Builds are ranked by the lower edge of their win rate range, not the raw win rate, so a build seen in a handful of wins never outranks a proven one.
Best Lucian Runes vs Caitlyn
Usual Lucian runes (Bot)
Press the Attack
71.4% win rate · 21 games
Against Caitlyn
Press the Attack
54.8% win rate · 157 games
Plan your Lucian draft in Draft Lab
Draft Lab lays out both teams lane by lane with live matchup win rates, damage profiles and game-phase lean, and suggests picks and bans from current meta data.
- Full 5v5 draft board
- Lane matchup win rates
- Pick and ban suggestions
Lucian matchup data for League of Legends patch 26.22. The table below shows Lucian's win rate, gold difference, and performance stats against every champion in the current meta. Click any champion name to see a detailed head-to-head breakdown including the best Lucian build, runes, laning stats, and early vs late game analysis for that specific matchup.
Other Lucian Matchups
Hardest for Lucian
Easiest for Lucian
Win rate and games for each matchup. Lists are ranked by the edge of the 95% range so small samples cannot top them; matchups with at least 50 games only.
Help us maintain accuracy! If you notice incorrect stats, missing data, or any issues, your feedback directly improves the quality of our data for the entire community.
Lucian vs Caitlyn FAQ - Patch 26.21–26.22
Who wins Lucian vs Caitlyn?
Lucian vs Caitlyn is an even matchup: Lucian wins 48.9% of 999 games, and the 95% range (45.9–52.0%) comfortably includes 50%.
What is Lucian's win rate against Caitlyn?
Lucian wins 48.9% of 999 Bot games against Caitlyn on patch 26.21–26.22 (95% range 45.9–52.0%). Based on both champions' overall Bot win rates, 50.4% would be expected.
Does Lucian counter Caitlyn?
Not clearly. Lucian wins 48.9% of 999 games against Caitlyn, and the 95% range (45.9–52.0%) includes 50%, so neither champion reliably counters the other on current data.
Who wins lane, Lucian or Caitlyn?
Neither side reliably wins the lane: the average gold difference at 15 minutes is 12, within the margin of error (440 games).
Does Lucian outscale Caitlyn?
Not measurably: Lucian's win rate against Caitlyn in games of 25 minutes or less and in longer games is within the margin of error of each other.
When is Caitlyn strongest against Lucian?
On current data there is no stage of the game where Caitlyn is ahead of Lucian beyond the margin of error.
What should Lucian build against Caitlyn?
The most successful Lucian core against Caitlyn is Navori Flickerblade, Essence Reaver, Lord Dominik's Regards (61.4% over 70 games). The biggest change against Caitlyn: Berserker's Greaves (16.6% usually, 23.3% here).
What runes should Lucian use against Caitlyn?
Press the Attack with Precision and Inspiration — 54.8% over 157 games against Caitlyn. The biggest change against Caitlyn: Flash + Barrier (65.7% usually, 79.2% here).